88,000 Baht: What I'm Watching in Thai Gold Right Now

By Siam Sukkhee Trading Co., Ltd — 2026-07-21 — metals trading Thailand 2026

I walked past three gold shops in Silom yesterday. All three had crowds.

Not the usual browsers. Actual buyers.

That's the thing about Thai gold right now. When it moves, people notice. When it moves significantly—like it has through the first half of this year—people act on it. We're up something like 12 to 13 percent since January, which is real money if you're holding baht-weight, and the retail market is responding exactly as you'd expect it to.

The number that's doing the rounds in the trade is 88,000 baht per baht-weight.

Let me be direct about what that means. It means global gold hitting roughly US$6,400 per ounce. MTS Gold's chairman, Dr Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, raised the forecast to that level partway through the year after the metal outperformed what they'd originally estimated. Their original call was US$5,000. Then January and February happened, July happened, and suddenly you're revising upward.

That's not a small shift.

Getting to 88,000 from where we are now—call it 66,000 to 67,000 in late July—requires another 30 percent climb, more or less. Over the whole of 2026, if it lands, that's roughly 50 percent total movement in the baht price. So the question isn't whether gold is moving. It's whether it has another 30 percent left in it over the next few months.

Honestly, that's an aggressive call. I won't pretend it isn't.

But here's why it's not completely mad. The dollar is under real pressure. Trump's trade policy is doing damage to confidence in the currency, and you can see it in the data. When the dollar weakens, dollar-denominated gold becomes cheaper in local currency. In Thailand especially, that's a massive tailwind because gold ownership isn't some Western institutional thing here—it's cultural. It's embedded. Retail buyers move this market, not funds.

Actually, that's not quite right. It's not that retail buyers move the market in isolation. It's that retail sentiment feeds back into flows. A single day in July, gold ticked up 1.1 percent and hit 135,258 baht per ounce in Thailand, and that day pulled thousands of people into shops across Bangkok and Chiang Mai. Some buying momentum. Some locking in gains. The market accelerates on its own.

That dynamic compounds when the structural case is sound.

The structural case is the dollar. Geopolitical uncertainty. Central banks diversifying away from US Treasuries. None of that is going away in the next five months. Whether we hit 88,000 or run into resistance somewhere between 75,000 and 80,000, the direction Dr Kritcharat is describing matches what we're actually seeing in the data. Up. Steadily. With retail participation that makes it sticky.

The exact ceiling is anyone's guess.

But the ceiling's a lot higher than it was six months ago.

Tags: MTS Gold, Dr Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, Thai baht gold, Thailand gold price forecast 2026, gold price 88000 baht target, Southeast Asia gold retail demand