Thai gold prices shed 1,350 baht at the open as the June selloff deepens

By Siam Sukkhee Trading Co., Ltd — 2026-06-29 — metals trading Thailand 2026

The Thai gold market just showed us something most traders prefer to ignore: you can't hide from US monetary policy, no matter how many gold shops you own between here and Chiang Mai.

June 25, 9:08 a.m. The Gold Traders Association posted its first price announcement and cut domestic gold bar by 1,350 baht in one move. Down to 63,000 baht per baht-weight.

That's not a correction. That's a market talking.

I've watched enough trading floors to know what happens before days like that. June 24 came with 34 separate price revisions. The day before? 38 revisions. You don't get that kind of churn from people calmly adjusting prices. You get it from people trying to find where the real price actually lives while the ground keeps shifting under their feet.

The worst part is the math. Industry analysts were throwing around 88,000-baht forecasts earlier this year. Domestic buyers who believed them are now staring at losses that don't fit in a spreadsheet.

Three things pushing the same direction

Global gold hit $4,023.95 on June 11. That's the weakest spot price since November 2025, roughly 26% below the January 29 record of $5,595. By June 27 it was sitting around $4,080 and losing ground for four straight weeks. The analysts who were talking about $5,000 targets earlier this year have gone quiet. More or less all of them.

Here's the setup. The Federal Reserve—Kevin Warsh running things now—closed its June meeting in a mood that spooked gold bulls. Nine out of nineteen FOMC members are projecting at least one more rate hike this year. September is on the table. Higher rates make bonds and savings accounts look interesting again. Gold doesn't pay you anything. In a rising-rate environment, that's a structural problem inflation anxiety can't fix by itself.

Then there's the dollar.

The dollar index pushed past 100 and won't move. When your currency strengthens, dollar-priced bullion gets expensive. Thai buyers, Indian buyers, anyone settling in local money gets pinched. That's not theory. That's what happens in gold shops every single day.

And the third thing is easier to name: geopolitical risk premiums just evaporated. They held gold up through most of 2025. Now they're gone. Safe-haven demand dry. Fear trade over.

Three separate forces. All pointing down. All moving at once.

I should say—actually, the fear trade isn't completely over, it's just priced out of the market. Big difference. Or no, that's not right either. It's not priced out. It's not there at all.

For Thai retail traders, this isn't abstract. It's 34 revisions in a session. It's buying bars at 88,000 and watching them settle in the low 63,000s. It's a market that can't hold a price long enough to feel real.

The honest question sitting in front of anyone holding physical gold right now is whether the Fed pivots before things get worse. If they hike in September, the dollar stays firm, geopolitical anxiety stays dead, and 63,000 baht stops looking like a floor. Might start looking like a ceiling.

That's the thing about the Thai gold market. It's not insulated from anything. Those 1,350 baht hit us on June 25 because Kevin Warsh and the FOMC were in a particular mood in Washington. That signal moved instantly from the Federal Reserve building to every gold shop between Bangkok and Chiang Mai.

The transmission mechanism doesn't change. Neither should your positioning if you're banking on it being different.

Tags: Gold Traders Association, Thai gold, Kevin Warsh, Thailand gold price June 2026, Federal Reserve gold market impact 2026, Thai baht gold price drop